The struggles of the Russian space program since 2010 have turned what was once a source of pride into a source of embarrassment. Mismanagement of key projects and emigration of skilled scientists and engineers have added to headline failures like the Phobos Grunt Mars probe, to present an image of a mighty giant brought low.
Not for nothing is the Federal Space Agency’s motto “Per aspera ad astra”, however (“Through the thorns to the stars”). Last month, following media leaks through the Kommersant newspaper, agency general director Vladimir Popovkin presented a strategy to preserve Russia’s place among the top three space programs in the world.
The balance sheet
A Glonass satellite mock-up on display as part of the Space-Elections-Telecommunications exhibit at the Central Elections Commission
Financing may prove to be a problem. Popovkin said the program will need up to 200 billion rubles ($6.7 billion) annually to be functional – more than double its current investment, according to Alexander Zheleznyakov, a member of the academy at the Tsyolkovsky Space Academy in St. Petersburg.
Despite Russia’s role as the main carrier of equipment and crews to the International Space Station, and its development of Glonass, the only competitor to the American GPS, the country’s investment is quite low.
Zheleznyakov said that the global space services market is diverse in possibilities and consumer applications, including navigation systems, satellite telephony and television, and high-definition photography, but that Russia is not yet taking advantage of it.
“The world market’s value for these services is estimated at about $300 billion per year,” he said. “Russia’s stake is less than one percent of the overall world market volume.”
Room for the market
Assembling a communications satellite at the Reshetnev Information Satellite Systems Company
Popovkin’s proposed budget is still three times lower than that of NASA, but many analysts say a revitalization of the program will be impossible without the cooperation of private enterprise. It is here where the United States’ experience offers Russia a case study with two companies.
Unlike missions during the Cold War, Popovkin said that manned flights and “space infrastructure” will not be a priority for the space industry, but rather applied uses.
The main purpose will be the “creation of an orbital cluster that would help improve people’s lives,” he said, citing weather satellites and the Glonass navigation system as the most prominent examples and most in need of continued development.
“Farmers, businessmen and individuals alike should profit from the results of our activity,” Popovkin said.
Russia needs to develop its share
Rus, a manned spacecraft, on display
“Our satellite grouping as of now is not enough to satisfy modern market needs, while additional reserve satellites are to be deployed to secure communications,” Zheleznyakov agreed. Aside from the technical requirements, Russia faces an urgent need to create a “solid consumer base” for Glonass devices and related services, he said.
Domestic supply of data and equipment in other areas are lacking, too, Zheleznyakov said. As of March 2012, Russia had only two active weather satellites orbiting Earth, the Electro and the Meteor- M, which he maintains are not enough for a country the size of Russia.
“We keep buying meteorological data abroad, from France and other countries,” Zheleznyakov said.
Popovkin’s space strategy looks to be aiming at exactly this goal, with Russia producing by 2020 most of the services it currently gets abroad, and replacing imported hardware components that the agency claims are unable to withstand the force of cosmic rays, a fault that it holds responsible for the failure of the Phobos Grunt probe.
Skolkovo proposal
One possible solution is for funding is a proposal of support from the Skolkovo foundation.
“The logic of the process is that startups in the space industry should be supported on the seed stage by the foundation,” said Pavel Sharov, project manager with the Space Technology and Telecommunications cluster at Skolkovo. “Later they should be picked up as part of the space industry upstream supply chain, or may compete at the commercial market of downstream space applications, like navigation and geoinformatics solutions.”
Sharov’s optimism about future business development of space program projects is supported by two deals the foundation has recently signed, with the Energia Corporation, boosters builder, and the Krasnoyarsk satellite and space communications company ISS-Reshetnev, to establish research and development centers at Skolkovo that could lead to new consumer applications.
Pure research
A Glonass M navigation satellite in the process of being assembled
Despite the emphasis on applied uses, the program will not ignore the needs of pure research. Scientific missions are planned to increase from the current one annual launch, Kommersant reported. More space telescopes are also on the agenda, Zheleznyakov said.
The new Vostochny spaceport in the Russian Far East will prove an invaluable support to space-based industry and research, allowing craft with heavy boosters, able to carry up to 180 tons of cargo. A manned lunar mission, an expedition to Mars, and unmanned missions to retrieve soil from Jupiter and Venus indicate the ambitions of the space program for the future, but a source of funding must first be determined.
Safety key for private space missions
Former astronaut Leroy Chiao dons Orlan, a famous Russian-made spacesuit
A controversial issue for private space missions is safety, especially on manned fl ights. Leroy Chiao, a former astronaut who traveled to the International Space Station in 2004 and 2005, was part of a 2009 U.S. government committee developing plans for future missions.
“As a part of several options, we suggested that NASA help partially fund some commercial human space fl ight eff orts,” he said in an e-mail. “The idea was that if commercial orbital transportation could be achieved, then NASA could focus resources on exploration beyond low Earth orbit [further out in the solar system].”
Government involvement, through NASA and the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, will still be necessary to vet commercial operations for safety. Without a safety policy, Chiao does not see commercial space fl ight becoming a reality in the United States.
The parallel Chiao off ered was air travel, with both airlines and airplanes subject to government inspection. Similar regulations would have to be placed on commercial space travel.
“I would feel safe on a commercial orbital space vehicle, if that vehicle and company had been through the safety vetting process, which is yet to be established by the U.S. government,” he said.
Source: The Moscow News